Chaos and Forecasting (Nonlinear Time Series and Chaos)

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9789810221263: Chaos and Forecasting (Nonlinear Time Series and Chaos)

It is now generally recognized that very simple dynamical systems can produce apparently random behaviour. Attention has recently turned to focus on the flip-side of this coin: random-looking time series (or random-looking patterns in space) may indeed be the result of very complicated processes or "real noise", but they may equally well be produced by some very simple mechanism (a low-dimensional attractor). In either case, a long-term prediction will be possible only in probabilistic terms. However, in the very short term, random systems will still be unpredictable but low-dimensional chaotic ones may be predictable (appearances to the contrary). The Royal Society held a two-day discussion meeting on topics covering diverse fields, including biology, economics, geophysics, meterology, statistics, epidemiology, earthquake science and many others, each topic covered by a leading expert in the field. The meeting dealt with different basic approaches to the problem of chaos and forecasting, and covered applications to nonlinear forecasting of both artificially-generated time series and real data from context in the above-mentioned diverse fields. This book forms an introduction to the science of chaos, with special reference to real data.

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"... useful and recommended for forecast researchers striving for a more realistic methodology that goes substantially beyond conventional statistical theory." -- M A Kaboudan

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Published by World Scientific Pub Co Inc (1995)
ISBN 10: 9810221266 ISBN 13: 9789810221263
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