America's Collision Course with the Caucasus: Is Military Intervention Inevitable?

The Caucasus is developing into a vital strategic region. It emerged from the Soviet Union's shadow in 1991 and spawned wild oil and gas speculation, and U.S. policy makers developed relationships with the region's countries as it matured. However, ethnic tensions and separatist movements in the Caucasus still pose a significant threat to American interests. Will the U.S. military intervene to stabilize the Caucasus by 2010? This monograph explores this question. It introduces the reader to the Caucasus' complexity and presents factors affecting a military intervention decision. It presents three likely contingencies that may require U.S. force intervention before 2010: peacekeeping in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, stabilization of the Georgian or Azerbaijani governments, or prevention of ethnic cleansing. It also provides a summary of each contingency compared to the 1999 National Security Strategy's criteria for deploying U.S. forces to assess the probability of intervention. The monograph is a passport to the Caucasus, removing the mystery from it to assess its operational challenges. The key to success in future military operations there is understanding the Caucasus' diversity and it's emerging international significance.

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