Analysis of Uncertainty in ETMS Aggregate Demand Predictions

The purpose of this research is to examine the accuracy of predicted ETMS airport and sector counts, and to attempt to develop better prediction algorithms. The remainder of this report is in six sections. • Section 1 Quality of Current Predictions Discussion of the accuracy of current flight predictions for a given location and 15-minute time interval. • Section 2 New Models for Predicting the Number of Flights The development and calibration of new models for predicting the number of flights in a 15-minute time interval. • Section 3 Testing Model 2 Discussion of the testing of one promising new model. • Section 4 Relationship between Flight Predictions and Monitor/Alert Discussion of the relationship between flight predictions and alerts, along with some performance metrics for alerts. • Section 5 Conclusion • Section 6 Next Steps • Section 7 References