Anticipating Political Risk

Systematize political risk analysis with rigorous analytical tools

The contemporary world faces a unique combination of interconnectedness with increasing levels of geopolitical uncertainty and political risk. The need for models and methods with which to evaluate uncertainty and risk has never been greater Evaluating Political Risk: Modes of Thinking and Models of Analysis provides a systematic analytical toolkit, presenting methods and models grounded in insights from psychology, public policy, political science, economics, and history.

Evaluating Political Risk teaches readers to systematize their reasoning and apply analytical tools responsibly. The progressive chapter structure moves from foundational concepts of risk and uncertainty through increasingly sophisticated analytical models, developing cumulative competence. Each chapter pairs a specific method or model with applied illustrations, drawn from around the world.

Readers will also find:

• A curriculum-ready chapter sequence designed to map onto a standard 15-week semester for graduate or advanced undergraduate courses
• Practical guidance on analytical methods for assessing instability, navigating negotiations, and strategizing resource allocation
• Interdisciplinary frameworks integrating insights from psychology, economics, history, and public policy into coherent political risk methods
• Contemporary case studies illustrating each model's real-world application across multiple regions, political systems, and types of risk
• Tools applicable beyond corporate settings, that can serve intelligence analysts, diplomats, NGO leaders, and journalists

Written for advanced undergraduates, graduate students in international relations, political science, and business, as well as working professionals, Evaluating Political Risk delivers the analytical toolkit needed to reason through political risk and uncertainty with discipline and analytical rigor.

MATTHEW M. TAYLOR is Professor of International Studies at the School of International Service at American University. He has been a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and adjunct senior fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Over the past thirty years, he has provided advisory services on Latin American economics and politics to a wide range of public and private sector clients in the United States, Europe, and Latin America.