Apocalypse When? : Calculating How Long the Human Race Will Survive

Wells, Willard

ISBN 10: 0387098364 / ISBN 13: 9780387098364

Published by Springer New York, 2009

Former library copy. Pages intact with possible writing/highlighting. Binding strong with minor wear. Dust jackets/supplements may not be included. Includes library markings. Stock photo provided. Product includes identifying sticker. Better World Books: Buy Books. Do Good. Seller Inventory # 51431375-6

Synopsis:

This book will be a key trailblazer in a new and upcoming field. The author’s predictive approach relies on simple and intuitive probability formulations that will appeal to readers with a modest knowledge of astronomy, mathematics, and statistics. Wells’ carefully erected theory stands on a sure footing and thus should serve as the basis of many rational predictions of survival in the face of not only natural disasters such as hits by asteroids or comets, but perhaps more surprisingly from man-made hazards arising from genetic engineering or robotics.

Any formula for predicting human survival will invite controversy. Dr Wells counters anticipated criticism with a thorough approach in which four lines of reasoning are used to arrive at the same survival formula. One uses empirical survival statistics for business firms and stage shows. Another is based on uncertainty of risk rates. The third, more abstract, invokes Laplace’s principle of insufficient reason and involves an observer’s random arrival in the lifetime of the entity (the human race) in question. The fourth uses Bayesian theory.

The author carefully explains and gives examples of the conditions under which his principle is valid and provides evidence that can counteract the arguments of critics who would reject it entirely. His deflection of possible criticisms results from two major premises: selecting the proper random variable and “reference class” to make predictions, and the recognition that if one does not know the law that governs a process, then the best prediction that can be made is his own formula.

Review: Wells has built up a sufficient ''preponderance of evidence'' that requires his final conclusions to be taken seriously. ... The risk of extinction is currently3% per decade ... the risk of a lesser catastrophic event ... is 10% per decade.  ''Unless the population plummets soon, a near-extinction event will likely occur within the lifetime of today's infants.'' The irony again is that since some of us would survive a near-extinction event, the probability for our long-term survival as a species is not all that bad, being roughly 70%. - J. J. Watkins, Mathematical Intelligencer, V.34, pp.71-2

Bibliographic Details

Title: Apocalypse When? : Calculating How Long the ...
Publisher: Springer New York
Publication Date: 2009
Binding: Soft cover
Condition: Very Good