Assessing Rainfall Variability and Trends in the Era of Climate Change

The book analyzes spatial and temporal rainfall variability across Madhya Pradesh using 70 years (1951–2020) of high-resolution gridded rainfall data. Statistical trend analysis was conducted using the Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, and the Modified Mann-Kendall test (after removing serial correlation through pre-whitening) at a 5% significance level. The dataset was divided into pre-industrial (1951–1985) and post-industrial (1986–2020) periods for temporal comparison. Rainfall trends were evaluated seasonally and monthly using R Studio (packages trend and modifiedmk) and spatially visualized in ArcGIS 10.3.1. Results show increasing pre-monsoon rainfall during the pre-industrial period, with Barwani and Balaghat experiencing the greatest changes. Monsoon trends varied spatially, with post-industrial years showing an overall increase—maximum rise in Dhar (+0.3922 mm/yr) and decline in Bhind (–0.3286 mm/yr). Post-monsoon and winter rainfall exhibited minimal variation. On a monthly scale, March and April showed notable increases, particularly in Shajapur district.