Assumption-Based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises (RAND Studies in Policy Analysis)

Unwelcome surprises in the life of any organization can often be traced to the failure of an assumption that the organization's leadership didn't anticipate or had "forgotten". Assumption-based planning (ABP) is a tool for identifying as many as possible assumptions underlying the plans of an organization and bringing them explicitly into the planning process. This book presents a variety of techniques for rooting out those vulnerable, crucial assumptions. It also presents steps for monitoring the vulnerable assumptions of a plan by taking actions to control them where possible and preparing for potential failure where control is not possible.

Unwelcome surprises in the life of any organization can often be traced to the failure of an assumption that the organization's leadership didn't anticipate or had "forgotten" it was making. Assumption-based planning (ABP) is a tool for identifying as many as possible of the assumptions underlying the plans of an organization and bringing those assumptions explicitly into the planning process.This book presents a variety of techniques for rooting out those vulnerable, crucial assumptions that, through familiarity or other reasons, have gotten buried in one's thinking. The book also presents steps for monitoring all the vulnerable assumptions of a plan, for taking actions to control those vulnerable assumptions where possible, and for preparing the organization for the potential failure of those assumptions where control is not possible.