Benchmarking Current Practices in Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis for Nuclear Installations

This publication analyzes probabilistic fault displacement hazards across diverse earthquake scenarios to reveal key results and implications for nuclear safety assessments.

This publication explores the findings of an IAEA-designed exercise focused on understanding probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) for nuclear installation sites. The IAEA benchmarking exercise examines fault displacement hazard curves from various earthquake scenarios, including the 2016 Kumamoto (magnitude 7.0), Norcia (magnitude 6.5), and the 2019 Le Teil (magnitude 4.9) earthquakes. These events represent different fault types: strike-slip, normal, and reverse faulting and have documented fault displacements. This publication aims to share key results and insights from the PFDHA exercise, comparing hazard outcomes and explaining the factors behind observed differences. This will help Member States assess the compatibility of current fault displacement models with the earthquake scenarios that will possibly be used in nuclear safety evaluations