Beyond Convergence: A World Without Order

This publication describes the disturbing, yet highly important, new trend of transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) joining forces with terrorist groups and insurgents in order to create an adaptive, destructive, alternate ecosystem, in which extreme violence and criminal commerce rule. This trend is harmful to both the public interest and public good, as well as to the sovereignty of independent world powers. As this trend increases, the United Nations has issued a "high warning" (or worse) rating to at least one-third of U.N. state members. Criminal organizations and terrorist groups have access to quick communication, easy travel, military-grade protection and weapons, legal counsel, and other services that make them forces which can destabilize entire nations. Information about the convergence of TCOs and terrorists and insurgents is very limited due to their ability to remain off the radar of United States defense agencies. It is likely that illicit products used to fund these criminal and terrorist groups comprise two to five percent of global product. These criminal/terrorist networks divert global economic resources, as well as being able to use their power to diminish a state's ability to govern and protect itself. The worldwide nature of this epidemic, how it affects the United States and other world actors, and possible futures are explored in this publication. Related Illicit Networks and National Security in the Age of GlobalizationArmed Studies in National Security, Counterterrorism, and Counterinsurgency Old and New Insurgency Forms Countering Radicalization and Recruitment to Fighting the War of DeedsAntiquities Destruction and Illicit Sales as Sources of ISIS Funding and Propaganda

Hilary Matfess is a research associate at the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA), a
freelance journalist, and a contributor to the Nigeria Social Violence Project at the Johns
Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. She has conducted fieldwork in Tanzania, Rwanda, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. Her current research focuses on social violence and the Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria. Prior to joining IDA, she was a
research analyst at the Center for Complex Operations at the National Defense University.

Michael Miklaucic, Director of Research, Information, and Publications at the Center for
Complex Operations (CCO) at National Defense University, is also the editor of PRISM,
the journal of CCO. Prior to this assignment, he served in various positions at the U.S.
Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Department of State, including
chief operating officer for the USAID Office of Democracy and Governance, and rule of
law specialist in the Center for Democracy and Governance. From 2002 to 2003, he served
as the Department of State deputy for War Crimes Issues. He later returned to State as a
USAID representative on the Civilian Response Corps Inter-Agency Task Force.