Synopsis
A dramatic transformation of global power is under way, one only dimly recognized by most Americans. As economics and trade now loom larger than nuclear stockpiles or Cold War ideology, those countries with the fastest growing economies have begun to rewrite the rules of power and influence in the world. These nations are the Big Emerging Markets, and for too long we have failed to recognize their importance. We can no longer afford that luxury. The Big Ten is the essential guide to the ten most important Big Emerging Markets. Jeffrey E. Garten, the Dean of the Yale School of Management and the former Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade, explains who they are, why they have burst onto the world scene, and how they will reshape the world in the twenty-first century. The ten countries to watch are spread across the globe: Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina in the Americas; China, India, Indonesia, and South Korea in Asia; Poland and Turkey in Europe; and in Africa, South Africa. The Big Ten are bigger than most people realize: they are home to half the world's population, and the United States exports more products to these countries than to Europe and Japan combined. They also wield immense political influence in many of the world's most critical regions. Moreover, American industrial firms, mutual funds, and pension plans have begun to invest heavily in these dynamic economies, making our own prosperity increasingly dependent on theirs.While the Big Ten offer new opportunities for the United States, Garten observes their potential political instability could create economic havoc around the world. In addition, they pose powerful ethical and strategic dilemmas. The BEMs do not share our values regarding human rights, child labor, corruption, or environmental degradation, and our growing contacts with these societies are sure to violate our notions of fairness and our moral sensibilities. And as the Big Ten grow and mature as regional powers, they will pose unprecedented challenges to American global leadership.Drawing on his first-hand experiences at the highest levels of government, finance, and academia, Garten advances a comprehensive plan for America to meet the challenges of this emerging new world. he addresses the critical questions facing American policy makers, business executives, educators, and concerned citizens, and he outlines the bold changes that will be necessary if we are to control our national destiny in the decades to come. The Big Ten will help readers understand the importance of NAFTA, the rise of China, the connection between trade and human rights, and the imperatives for American foreign policy, business, and higher education. Packed with powerful insights and real-life stories from the front lines of international commerce, The Big Ten will redefine the way we think about America's global role in the twenty-first century.
Reviews
Having identified Germany and Japan as America's principal challengers for economic dominion in A Cold Peace (1992), Garten changes his mind and policy recommendations in this didactic briefing on up-and-coming rivals. Drawing largely on work done while serving as undersecretary of commerce for international trade in the first Clinton administration, the author (now dean of the Yale School of Management) offers a survey of ten countries he categorizes as big emerging markets, or BEMs: Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, and Turkey. All of the disparate nations, Garten notes, are populous, rich in resources, and have become regional powers; in response to postCold War exigencies, they also are endeavoring to make democratic capitalism the ruling principle of their economies. While BEMs are among the Global Village's most rapidly expanding outlets for exports, he warns, doing business with them can prove difficult. Cases in point include restricted access to markets, corruption, cutthroat competition, and the theft of intellectual property. There is also the risk of clashes over cultural values, in particular, environmental protection, human rights, and labor practices. Asserting that America is ill prepared to take advantage of its opportunities in BEMs, Garten goes on to offer initiatives designed to retrieve the situation. By and large, his proposals (accelerating domestic economic growth, encouraging capital investment, controlling inflation, creating a new social contract, rethinking higher education) are longer on good intentions than details. And what he calls vigorous commercial diplomacy may strike less enthusiastic observers as going global with high-level jawboning and industrial policy. A call to arms for corporate America, more interesting for its details on new foreign markets than for its rather vague prescriptions. (illustrations, not seen) -- Copyright ©1997, Kirkus Associates, LP. All rights reserved.
Garten is now dean of the School of Management at Yale University, but his book is based on more practical experience resulting from his stint as undersecretary of commerce for international trade during President Clinton's first administration. At the Department of Commerce, Garten was credited with shaping trade relations with big and emerging markets (BEMs), and here he elaborates on the lessons he learned then. He argues that this nation's future competitive challenge will not come from established superpowers but from the 10 largest BEMs: Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Turkey, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, Indonesia, India, and China. Rather than profile each of these countries individually, Garten considers the combined effect of our "economic engagement" with them. Noting the policy implications of the potential clash of values over issues of labor, the environment, and human rights, Garten calls for the U.S. to be prepared to practice "commercial diplomacy" with each one of the Big Ten. David Rouse
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