The Challenges of Budgeting for Defense in an Era of Uncertainty and Unpredictability

Does the Department of Defense have adequate funding to meet its requirements? Does it have what it needs to defend the interests of the United States? Does the defense budget need to increase, or can the Department accomplish the National Military Strategy with less? Finally, what threats are driving defense budgets today and what type of military force is required? On the surface, these questions seem easy to answer, but in reality, they are quite difficult. They are difficult because of the uncertain and unpredictable environment in which today's Department of Defense operates. The "comfort" days of the Cold War, where the United States required a large conventional force to deter a major state actor are long gone. Currently, no strong nation state threatens the United States. Will this remain true in the future, or will an emerging power, such as China, grow to threaten US interests and those of its allies? Will the United States continue to face irregular warfare threats from weak or failed states, terrorists, or other non-state actors? Will the successes of current terrorist groups embolden others to do the same, and what kind of military force is required to meet these uncertainties?

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