Chance, Logic and Intuition: An Introduction to the Counter-Intuitive Logic of Chance

Chance rules our daily lives in many different ways. From the outcomes of the lottery to the outcomes of medical tests, from the basketball court to the court of law. The ways of chance are capricious. Bizarre things happen all the time. Nevertheless, chance has a logic of its own. It obeys the rules of probability. But if you open a standard book on probability, you may very well feel far removed from everyday life. Abstract formulas and mathematical symbols stare back at you with almost every turn of the page. This book introduces you to the logic of chance without the use of mathematical formulas or symbols. In Part One, you will meet the fascinating pioneers of the mathematics of probability, including Galileo Galilei and Blaise Pascal. Their stories will introduce you, step by step, to the basics of probability. In Part Two, various examples in all areas of daily life will show you how chance defies our expectations time and again. But armed with the basic rules of probability and a good dose of inventiveness, you will be able to unravel the counter-intuitive logic of chance.

Steven Tijms, born on April 7, 1969 in Velsen, graduated from the Gymnasium Felisenum in Velsen, with the highest grades in mathematics, chemistry and history. At Leiden University he studied mathematics (BSc) and took courses in philosophy. Later, he also studied Classical Languages (MA, cum laude) at Leiden University. His special focus in Classics was on ancient Greek mathematics and philosophy, and on NeoLatin texts. In mathematics, he is especially interested in the border area between mathematics and everyday life, such as everyday probability and the mathematics of music. He has been teaching mathematics and has worked and still works as a freelance writer. He is also the co-writer of the Dutch book Spelen met Kansen, which formed the basis for the successful textbook Understanding Probability by Henk Tijms, his father. He wrote an article for the Dutch Statistical Journal and also wrote the Dutch book Toeval is altijd logisch (Chance is always logical), which was published by the VU University Press in 2018, the Dutch version of Chance, Logic and Intuition, which will be published by World Scientific Publishing. He worked as a volunteer for Fair Trade stores, contributing newspaper articles and promotional materials. He also sings in a vocal ensemble.