Chancing It (Paperback)

Paperback. Everyone who's had to get to grips with chance knows how tricky even its simplest manifestations can be. Its workings are a constant challenge to common sense: a run of luck goes bad just when you trust it; strange patterns suddenly emerge from random events; supposedly accurate predictions about the weather, financial markets or your health prove hopelessly unreliable. Award-winning scientist and writer Robert Matthews shows us how we can cut through the conundrums of chance. He gives us access to some of the most potent intellectual tools ever developed, and explains how we can use them to guide our judgements and decisions. By the end of the book you'll know:The secret to predicting coincidencesThe golden rule of professional gamblersHow to tell when insurance is a waste of moneyWhen to heed health and diet warnings - and when to ignore themHow to tell when forecasts are worth taking seriouslyHow to make better choices in the face of uncertaintyUsing a host of real-life examples, this groundbreaking book shows how the laws of probability can sharpen your decisions, make the most of your luck - and quite possibly transform your life. Key insights into how probability affects our lives by one of Britain's leading science writers. Shipping may be from our UK warehouse or from our Australian or US warehouses, depending on stock availability.…