L'esprit de ce travail est � rapprocher d'une citation de Jean-Paul Benz�cri, "le mod�le doit suivre les donn�es et non l'inverse". Ainsi, la m�thode de pr�vision contient un pr� processus d'analyse de donn�es. Les cartes d'auto-organisation, privil�gi�es dans ce pr� processus, ont �t� compl�t�es par des outils aide � leur l'interpr�tation pour am�liorer leur potentiel d'analyse. Ces outils se sont av�r�s performants pour analyser un grand nombre de donn�es r�elles issues de domaines vari�s tels que l'analyse de la consommation des canadiens ou du ch�mage. Ils ont �t� am�lior�s � mesure que leur champ d'application s'�tendait pour aboutir � un ensemble d'outils compl�mentaires d'analyse et de visualisation des donn�es dont la performance sera d�velopp�e en premi�re partie. La seconde partie pr�sente la m�thode de pr�vision qui s'�carte des m�thodes r�cursives et s'adapte � des contextes nouveaux. En particulier, pour la pr�vision de la consommation �lectrique, elle solutionne des probl�mes structurels aux s�ries chronologiques (comme la non- stationnarit�) qui limitent les performances des techniques traditionnelles ou neuronales.

About the Author

Patrick Rousset, titulaire d'un doctorat de l'universit� Panth�on-Sorbonne, est actuellement ing�nieur de recherche au centre d'�tudes et de recherche sur les qualifications et chercheur associ� au laboratoire SAMM de l'universit� Panth�on-Sorbonne.

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