Synopsis
The objective of this paper is to present a template for conducting a review of the latest climate research for a particular management unit. As an example, background material is provided from a recent climate change adaptation workshop held in Bishop, California, including some of the latest climate change projections relevant to the eastern Sierra Nevada, as well as a glossary of terms. This work was part of the Westwide Climate Initiative (WWCI)’s Toolkit for Adapting to Climate Change on Western National Forests. Globally, the average, minimum, and maximum temperatures are rising as a result of human-induced increases in greenhouse gases. Other global physical effects of anthropogenic climate warming include the melting of arctic sea ice and land-based ice bodies, thawing of the permafrost, global sea level rise, earlier spring runoff, and more frequent and more extreme weather events. Biologically, species ranges are shifting poleward and upward, and phenology is changing. In California, rising sea levels, increasing average and extreme temperatures, changing precipitation regimes, and more frequent and severe wildfires are also projected. Scientists have already observed an increase in rain versus snow, earlier snowfed streamflow, and earlier budbreak. In the Sierra Nevada, winter temperatures are projected to increase the most. Changes in snowfall and snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada could cause water shortages throughout the state, as the Sierra Nevada is the source of most of California’s water supply in the dry season. Climate change could have cascading effects across the Sierra Nevada, starting with physical changes and working its way through food webs, as in Lake Tahoe. Climate change effects on wildlife and vegetation will be complex and are not yet understood. We also present specific modeled projections for the Inyo National Forest. We selected three global climate models (GCMs; HADLEY CM3, MIROC3.2-medres, and CSIRO-Mk3.0) in combination with three carbon emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B2) to run the dynamic general vegetation model MC1 over the next century for the Inyo National Forest. This model projected between 2.5 and 10 °C temperature warming by 2100. Precipitation was not consistent among models except for an overall decrease in annual snowpack and an increase in precipitation, primarily falling as rain, projected along the Sierra Crest just west of Mono Lake. The models also indicate a longer and more severe fire season for the Inyo National Forest. Overall, there is considerable agreement between the two GCMs (MIROC3.2-medres and CSIRO-Mk3.0) used for the MC1 vegetation projections. They both project an increase in grassland and woodland, a decrease in shrubland, a reduction of subalpine forest, a severe loss of tundra habitat, and the emergence of a novel habitat, desert vegetation, for the Inyo National Forest. Although there is uncertainty in the MC1 model projections, our results resemble similar analyses of the Sierra Nevada and provide a general framework upon which to base management decisions. Finally, we review adaptation options for decisionmakers and provide a list of key electronic climate change adaptation resources.
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