In May 2021, the Conservative Party held an 18-point lead in the polls and won the Hartlepool by-election, taking the seat from the Labour Party on the biggest swing towards a governing party in the post-war era.
Three years later, the Conservatives suffered their worst-ever election defeat. An angry public, frustrated that nothing worked anymore, took whatever stick was available to beat the government in a punishment election.
Why and how did public opinion shift so radically against the Conservatives in three short years?
Drawing on hundreds of surveys, polls, and focus groups, Collapse of the Conservatives examines how voters deserted the Conservative Party as the events of the 2019-2024 parliament unfolded and how a powerful anti-Conservative narrative took hold with the public. It also charts the collapse of trust in politicians and the growth of an angry anti-politics mood, which has led to more transactional voting, an openness to populist views and greater fragmentation that has changed the electoral landscape.
In the 2024 general election, challenger parties, helped by a poor Conservative campaign, successfully leveraged the volatility of the electorate and its desire to punish the government for its incompetence. They sought to maximise their voter efficiency by targeting resources in specific constituencies where they could establish themselves as the main challenger and build an anti-incumbent tactical alliance. Strategies that are likely to shape future election campaigns.
The challenges facing the Conservative Party are significant. How does it deal with the rise of Reform and regain the seats lost to the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and the Labour Party? How does it rebuild its reputation for competence and develop a narrative that appeals beyond its ageing base to younger voters? Critically, how does the party reconcile its desire for lower taxes and a smaller state with the public’s desire for better infrastructure and services?
"The most comprehensive exploration of the 2024 election, The book meticulously examines the past 5 years of upheaval, with an impressive array of focus group data, polling, and analytical studies. Collapse of the Conservatives is essential reading for anyone seeking to understand the political landslide of 2024." RedTrain Blog.