Collapse and Revival: Understanding Global Recessions and Recoveries

The world is still recovering from the most recent global recession associated with the 2008-09 financial crisis and the possibility of another downturn persists as the global economy struggles to regain lost ground. But, what is a global recession? What is a global recovery? What really happens during these episodes? As the debates about the recent global recession and the subsequent recovery have clearly shown, our understanding of these questions has been very limited. This book tracks the global business cycle through the destruction of a global recession to the renewal of recovery, drawing on four major episodes in the past half century. It defines key terms, documents the main features of a global recession and recovery, and describes the events that take place around these episodes. The book also puts the latest global recession and ongoing recovery in perspective. A companion website and DVD provide several unique tools to help readers understand the basics: interactive timelines of the four episodes, videos of author interviews, several reports explaining the regional impact of the collapse, as well as coverage of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, and more.

Since the deep global recession of 2009, the recovery of the world economy has remained halting and uneven, with new challenges ahead. This new text by Ayhan Kose and Marco Terrones therefore comes at the perfect time. Its compact size is inversely proportional to its ambition and to its accomplishment. National business cycles have been studied minutely since the days of Mitchell, Burns, Hansen, and Schumpeter; relatively less effort has gone into studying the business cycle as a global phenomenon. Kose and Terrones fill this gap by analyzing business cycles at the world level, covering postwar history, measurement, theory, and the policy implications that follow from a holistic perspective, rather than a narrowly national one. Their pioneering analysis of global recession and recovery will be essential reading for students of the international economy, for practitioners of economics and finance, and especially for policymakers - Maurice Obstfeld,Economic Counsellor and Director of Research Department, International Monetary Fund

This is a landmark book that will have a profound influence on how scholars and policy economists think about booms and busts for many years to come. Pioneers in the field of analyzing and defining global recessions, Kose and Terrones argue that it no longer makes any sense to analyze national downturns as if they always occur in isolation. Particularly interesting and original is their emphasis on the asynchronous nature of recoveries. After 2009, for example, advanced economies experienced their slowest post-war recovery, yet for several years emerging markets experienced their fastest. Kose and Terrones analysis underscores why one needs to think differently about recessions and recoveries in today s globalized world - Kenneth Rogoff, Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy and Professor of Economics, Harvard University.

What happens when the global economy falls into recession and how does it recover? Kose and Terrones answer these and many other important questions in this comprehensive empirical study of Global Business Cycles. Their new book will be an indispensable resource for all serious students of the business cycle - Mark Watson, Howard Harrison and Gabrielle Snyder Becky Professor of Economics and Public Affairs, Princeton University.

The Great Recession, Global Recessions, Global Recoveries. How can citizens of the world understand these terms when many, including often economists, just toss them around without defining them carefully? This book addresses this confusion head on. It is a masterful, lucidly written and easily accessible introduction into the subject of global recessions and recoveries. It explains how everybody gets affected by them and why citizens, and economists, should care about their definition and measurement. Importantly, it provides crucial lessons on how to reduce the chances of a global economic collapse and how to avoid anemic revivals. A highly recommended read - Stijn Claessens, Senior Advisor, Federal Reserve Board and Professor of International Finance Policy, University of Amsterdam.

This lucid and timely book fills important gaps in our thinking about how the global economy and markets really work. It is essential reading for policymakers, business leaders, and economists. In clear and jargon-free language, supported by excellent online and media resources, Collapse and Revival is an elegant and sophisticated exploration of how global recessions begin and end, two critical economic questions of our time. The authors, members of a new generation of global macroeconomists working at the frontiers of the profession, have made an outstanding contribution to the field - Jean Pierre Lacombe,Chief Global Markets, Head of IFC Research. --Various

In an age of declining barriers to global interaction, real and financial sectors are becoming increasingly integrated across the world. Economists are generally well-equipped to study national business cycles, but what about world-wide trends? In the Age of Globalization, understanding world-wide developments is extremely important for all stakeholders, from policymakers to businesspeople. This comprehensive, insightful and rigorous study teaches to track, analyze and interpret global business cycles. Written by top scholars in the field, Collapse and Revival features a rich data review of business-cycle trends at all levels and presents established as well as novel empirical tools, including an interesting way of measuring global business cycles. It is easily accessible to a non-technical audience and includes rich analysis of a wide-variety of relevant topics. It is an excellent resource for economists, policymakers, and professionals working in the risk and finance fields - Michael G. Plummer, Director, SAIS Europe, and Eni Professor of International Economics, The Johns Hopkins University. --Michael G. Plummer, Director, SAIS Europe, and Eni Professor of International Economics, The Johns Hopkins University.