Coping with Uncertainty : Modeling and Policy Issues

Kurt Marti

ISBN 10: 3540352589 / ISBN 13: 9783540352587

Published by Springer, Berlin, Springer, 2006

About this Item

Druck auf Anfrage Neuware - Printed after ordering - Ongoing global changes bring fundamentally new scientific problems requiring new concepts and tools. A key issue concerns a vast variety of practically irreducible uncertainties, which challenge our traditional models and require new concepts and analytical tools. The uncertainty critically dominantes, e.g., the climate change debates. In short, the dilemma is concerned with enormous costs vs. massive uncertainties of potential extreme impacts. Traditional scientific approaches usually rely on real observations and experiments. Yet no sufficient observations exist for new problems, and 'pure' experiments and learning by doing may be very expensive, dangerous, or simply impossible. In addition, available historical observations are contaminated by actions, policies. The complexity of new problems does not allow to achieve enough certainty by increasing the resolution of models or by bringing in more links. Hence, new tools for modeling and management of uncertainty are needed, as given in this book.

Seller Inventory # 9783540352587

Bibliographic Details

• Title: Coping with Uncertainty : Modeling and Policy Issues
• Publisher: Springer, Berlin, Springer
• Publication Date: 2006
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 3540352589
• ISBN 13: 9783540352587
• Binding: Taschenbuch
• Condition: Neu
• Dimensions: 235W x 155H x 19D millimeters 235 millimeters width by 155 millimeters height by 19 millimeters depth
• Weight: 490 grams

About this title

Synopsis

Ongoing global changes bring fundamentally new scientific problems requiring new concepts and tools. A key issue concerns a vast variety of practically irreducible uncertainties, which challenge our traditional models and require new concepts and analytical tools. The uncertainty critically dominantes, e.g., the climate change debates. In short, the dilemma is concerned with enormous costs vs. massive uncertainties of potential extreme impacts. Traditional scientific approaches usually rely on real observations and experiments. Yet no sufficient observations exist for new problems, and "pure" experiments and learning by doing may be very expensive, dangerous, or simply impossible. In addition, available historical observations are contaminated by actions, policies. The complexity of new problems does not allow to achieve enough certainty by increasing the resolution of models or by bringing in more links. Hence, new tools for modeling and management of uncertainty are needed, as given in this book.