Decision Analysis for Creating the Future

Individuals and groups often find themselves in problematic situations not knowing what to do next. They may experience a sense of unease that things aren't quite right, with no clear path to a better future. This book shows how decision analysis and the social skills of the decision analyst can enable us to explore the future before having to live it. The author is a senior decision analyst sharing his lived experience with many clients in numerous private, public, and voluntary organisations. The book sets out a five-step process to choose, define, and assemble the ten key ingredients of any problem into one model. Changes to the ingredients representing possible futures provide new glimpses into the future, stimulate creativity and lead to new solutions. Readers will gain a sound theoretical foundation with an understanding of process consultancy skills and the types of problems for which decision analysis is appropriate.

Lawrence D. Phillips is Emeritus Professor in the Department of Management, London School of Economics and Political Science. In 2005 he received the Frank P. Ramsey Medal for distinguished contributions in Decision Analysis.