Decision Analysis for Management Judgment

An introduction to decision analysis methods and their application in business management. Considers theoretical issues but focuses on practical management problems. The discussion integrates the quantitative and psychological aspects of decision making and covers problems involving multiple objectives, methods of group decision making, behavioral issues and probability. Offers discussion questions, exercises and references to applicable computer software.

Decision analysis can play a valuable role in helping people to make decisions that involve risks or multiple objectives, but potential users are often deterred by the presentation of the subject in a mathematical form. This book aims to make decision analysis accessible to managers and administrators. Written in a user-friendly style, with little or no mathematical notation, and using practical examples, the book is unrivalled in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It demonstrates the pitfalls associated with unaided decision making and shows how difficult decisions can be tackled in structured ways so that new insights emerge and a documented and defensible rationale for the decision is established.

Extended and updated, this new edition contains a new chapter on structured risk and uncertainty management, updated coverage of research on how people make decisions, including fast and frugal heuristics, a detailed case study demonstrating the application of scenario planning and enhanced coverage of decision framing. Additional exercises have also been added to many chapters, while a companion web site contains valuable resources for lecturers and students. These include detailed answers to end-of-chapter exercises, PowerPoint slides, specimen examination papers and coursework with suggested answers, and links to other resources on the Internet, including downloadable software.

Assuming no prior knowledge of decision analysis, this book will help both practising managers faced with the responsibility of making crucial decisions as well as students on management, business administration and operations research courses.