Decisions Involving Uncertainty : An @RISK Tutorial for the Petroleum Industry

A great extension of Dr. Murtha's highly successful seminars on the use of @RISK in the petroleum industry. You start with 2 chapters to get up to speed on the philosophy of risk analysis and the requisite principles in probability, statistics, and Monte Carlo simulation. Following are the basic steps you’d take to actually build, run, and interpret results for a real risk analysis model in @RISK. To make it as hands-on as possible, Dr. Murtha includes lots of petroleum examples - an accompanying CD includes all these examples pre-built in Excel worksheets. Volumetric reserves, exponential decline, porosity and water saturation, waterflood prospect, and competitive bidding are some of the examples. This is a rare offering in that you'll learn about the concepts of risk analysis while also getting some very solid hands-on experience with risk analysis modelling in @RISK 4.0. A trial version of @RISK 4.0 is also included!

Dr. James Murtha has a Ph.D. in mathematics from the University of Wisconsin, and a Masters degree in petroleum and natural gas engineering from Penn State. He taught mathematics and petroleum engineering for 25 years and worked for or consulted extensively with Texaco, Chevron, Marathon, and S A Holditch & Associates. He has written papers and articles on Monte Carlo simulation, reservoir engineering, and spreadsheet applications, in addition to co-authoring two text books in mathematics. Now an independent consultant, Dr. Murtha is a registered petroleum engineer who presents seminars, teaches intensive training courses, and advises clients in risk analysis and other forms of decision making.