Dutch Intelligence: Towards a Qualitative Framework for Analysis

How can the process of professionalization of intelligence be supported? This study is aimed at contributing to the process of moving towards a qualitative framework for analysis. This need concerns two issues.
First, there is a need to develop an instrument for an ex ante quality assessment of intelligence and security agency reports. Until now, the issue of the accuracy of reports has been mainly limited to incidents, such as disasters like Pearl Harbor and 9/11. If you look at evaluations of such disasters, the focus of attention is on post mortem analyses. In post mortem analyses, you look back, knowing the outcome of the danger evaluated. The question, what is good intelligence, is not answered. In this study, an ex ante instrument is construed in such a way that the quality of reports can be evaluated, even when crucial intelligence is absent, or if the outcome of a danger is not known.
Second, there is a need to identify which factors contribute to a high or a low quality of a report. Factors of influence on the quality of reports are discussed and recommendations are presented.