Econometric Modelling and Analysis to Support Operational Policing: A New Zealand Police Case Study

Traditionally, police agencies have allocated resources in response to their operational demands or requirements, with the majority of resources being distributed in response to political demands and to public calls for service. This study examines this issue through the presentation of two quantitative econometric methods, simultaneous linear regression and multivariate analysis based on New Zealand social data. Three econometric models are applied to the fifty New Zealand Police Areas for the period 1997 to 2002. The results from the application of the three models are compared with the actual number of police officers, level of crime and resolution rate over this period. The difference between the actual figures and those suggested by the models is the basis for investigating Police Area effectiveness. The relationships between the three models, the socio-variables and the Police Areas are explored and analysed further by using five multivariate analysis methods to investigate service delivery effectiveness.

Dr den Heyer PhD is an Inspector with the New Zealand Police and a Senior Research Associate with the Police Foundation in Washington DC.