The Emergence of Peer Competitors: A Framework for Analysis

The potential emergence of a peer competitor is probably the most important long-term planning challenge for the Department of Defense. This report addresses the issue by developing a conceptual framework of how a proto-peer (meaning a state that is not yet a peer but has the potential to become one) might interact with the hegemon (the dominant global power). The central aspect of the framework is an interaction between the main strategies for power aggregation available to the proto-peer and the main strategies for countering the rise of a peer available to the hegemon. Then, using exploratory modeling techniques, the pathways of the various proto-peer and hegemon interactions are modeled to identify the specific patterns and combinations of actions that might lead to rivalries. The dominant power has an array of options available to limit the growth of its rivals or to change their ultimate intentions. Too confrontational a strategy, however, risks making a potential neutral power into a foe, while too conciliatory a stance may speed the growth of a competitor. Exploratory modeling suggests which attributes of the countries are most important and the sensitivity of the dominant power to perception errors.

THOMAS S. SZAYNA (Ph.D., Political Science, University of California, Los Angeles) is the associate director of the Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program, Arroyo Center, at RAND. His research includes strategic planning, NATO military force structure and planning, intra-state conflict, peace operations, and democratization and civil-military relations.

Daniel L. Byman (Ph.D., political science, M.I.T.) is a policy analyst at RAND whose research interests include modeling ethnic conflict, assessing Middle East politics and security issues, developing countermeasures against terrorism, reevaluating air power theory, and other general issues related to U.S. foreign policy.

DEREK EATON (Ph.D. University of Chicago, Political Science, August 1998) is a consultant at RAND.

Robert E. Mullins (King's College, University of London, London, England Doctor of Philosophy in War Studies received, October 2000) is an associate social scientist at RAND.

IAN O. LESSER (D. Phil., International Politics, St. Antony's College, OxfordUniversity) is a Senior International Policy Analyst at RAND whose areas of expertise include U.S. foreign policy and strategic planning, NATO and Mediterranean affairs, grand strategy and economic security, and international terrorism.