Evaluation in the Face of Uncertainty (Paperback)

Unexpected events during an evaluation all too often send evaluators into crisis mode. This insightful book provides a systematic framework for diagnosing, anticipating, accommodating, and reining in costs of evaluation surprises. The result is evaluation that is better from a methodological point of view, and more responsive to stakeholders. Jonathan A. Morell identifies the types of surprises that arise at different stages of a program's life cycle and that may affect different aspects of the evaluation, from stakeholder relationships to data quality, methodology, funding, deadlines, information use, and program outcomes. His analysis draws on 18 concise cases from well-known researchers in a variety of evaluation settings. Morell offers guidelines for responding effectively to surprises and for determining the risks and benefits of potential solutions.

Jonathan A. Morell is Director of Evaluation at The Fulcrum Corporation and Editor of Evaluation and Program Planning. Formerly he was Senior Policy Analyst at the Vector Research Center, a division of Jacobs Engineering. He is active in the American Evaluation Association (AEA), where he has been instrumental in founding two topical interest groups: Systems, and Business and Industry. He is a recipient of the Marcus Ingle Distinguished Service Award and the Paul F. Lazarsfeld Evaluation Theory Award from the AEA. His professional life has integrated his role as an evaluation practitioner with his theoretical interests. As a practitioner, he evaluates organizational change, R&D, and safety programs. He is also deeply involved in organizational design. His theoretical interests include the nature and use of logic models, the role of Lean Six Sigma methodologies in evaluation, complex system behavior, and the nature of practical action. He maintains a blog on issues related to evaluation and evaluation surprises.