Everything Is Predictable : How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World

Tom Chivers

ISBN 10: 1668052601 / ISBN 13: 9781668052600

Published by Simon & Schuster Mai 2024, 2024

Neuware - 'At its simplest, Bayes's theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in [this book], Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. But its influence goes far beyond practical applications. A cornerstone in rational thought, Bayesian principles are used in modeling and forecasting . and many argue that Bayes' theorem is not just a useful tool, but a description of almost anything--that it is the underlying architecture of rationality. Fusing biography, . science writing, and intellectual history, Everything is Predictable is an entertaining tour of Bayes' theorem and its impact on modern life, showing how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences'--Book jacket. Seller Inventory # 9781668052600

Synopsis:

A “fascinating, witty, and perspective-shifting” (Oliver Burkeman, New York Times bestselling author) tour of Bayes’s theorem and its global impact on modern life from the acclaimed science writer and author of The Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy.

At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything.

But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem? How did an 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician uncover a theorem that would affect fields as diverse as medicine, law, and artificial intelligence?

“Witty, lively, and best of all, extremely nerdy” (Tim Harford, author of The Undercover Economist), Everything Is Predictable is an entertaining and accessible illustration of how a single compelling idea can have far reaching consequences.

About the Author: Tom Chivers is an author and the award-winning science writer for Semafor. His writing has appeared in The Times (London), The Guardian, New Scientist, Wired, CNN, and more. His books include Everything Is Predictable, The Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy, and How to Read Numbers.

Bibliographic Details

Title: Everything Is Predictable : How Bayesian ...
Publisher: Simon & Schuster Mai 2024
Publication Date: 2024
Binding: Buch
Condition: Neu