How To Expect The Unexpected (B Pb): The Science Of Making Smart Predictions
Kit Yates
ISBN 10: 1529408695 ISBN 13: 9781529408690
Published by Quercus Publishing, 2024
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International Edition, Brand New, ISBN and Cover same but contents similar to U.S. Edition, We ship from multiple Locations including India. Legal to use despite any disclaimer, We ship to PO , APO and FPO adresses in U.S.A. Ship from multiple Locations including India Choose Expedited Shipping for FASTER DELIVERY.Customer Satisfaction Guaranteed. Seller Inventory # INISB1#9781529408690
Synopsis:
A “vivid, wide-ranging, and delightful guide” (bestselling author Tim Harford) for understanding how and why predictions go wrong, with practical tips to give you a better chance of getting them right
How can you be 100 percent sure you will win a bet? Why did so many Pompeians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting? Are you more likely to work in a kitchen if your last name is Baker? Ever since the dawn of human civilization, we have been trying to make predictions about what the world has in store for us. For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. In How to Expect the Unexpected, mathematician Kit Yates uncovers the surprising science that undergirds our predictions—and how we can use it to our advantage. From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Synthesizing results from math, biology, psychology, sociology, medicine, economic theory, and physics, Yates provides tools for readers to understand uncertainty and to recognize the cognitive biases that make accurate predictions so hard to come by. This book will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts, and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct.
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Bibliographic Details
Title: How To Expect The Unexpected (B Pb): The ...
Publisher: Quercus Publishing
Publication Date: 2024
Binding: Paperback
Condition: NEW
Edition: International Edition
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How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Smart Predictions
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Quercus Publishing, United Kingdom, London, 2024
ISBN 10: 1529408695
ISBN 13: 9781529408690
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Paperback. Condition: Very Good. A Waterstones Best Popular Science Book of 2023 'Delightfully clear and vivid to read.A splendid book! Philip Pullman 'Absolutely fascinating' James O'Brien 'An exceptional book - readable, funny and more needed than ever' Dr Chris van Tulleken, bestselling author of Ultra-Processed People Are you more likely to become a professional footballer if your surname is Ball? How can you be one hundred per cent sure you will win a bet? Why did so many Pompeiians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting? How do you prevent a nuclear war? Ever since the dawn of human civilisation, we have been trying to make predictions about what's in store for us. We do this on a personal level, so that we can get on with our lives efficiently (should I hang my laundry out to dry, or will it rain?). But we also have to predict on a much larger scale, often for the good of our broader society (how can we spot economic downturns or prevent terrorist attacks?). For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Our job is to separate the good from the bad. Unfortunately, the foibles of our own biology - the biases that ultimately make us human - can let us down when it comes to making rational inferences about the world around us. And that can have disastrous consequences. How to Expect the Unexpected will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct. The book has been read, but is in excellent condition. Pages are intact and not marred by notes or highlighting. The spine remains undamaged. Seller Inventory # GOR013965839
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How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Smart Predictions
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How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions and the Art of Knowing When Not To
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