Expert Adjustments of Model Forecasts: Theory, Practice and Strategies for Improvement

Franses, Philip Hans

ISBN 10: 1107441617 / ISBN 13: 9781107441613

Published by Cambridge University Press, 2014

About this Item

Seller Inventory # I-9781107441613

Bibliographic Details

• Title: Expert Adjustments of Model Forecasts: Theory, Practice and Strategies for Improvement
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press
• Publication Date: 2014
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 1107441617
• ISBN 13: 9781107441613
• Binding: Soft cover
• Condition: New

About this title

Synopsis

To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch', and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive research area, this accessible book brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts' modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in forecasting methodology.

About the Author

Philip Hans Franses is Professor of Applied Econometrics and Professor of Marketing Research at the Erasmus University Rotterdam. Since 2006 he has served as the Dean of the Erasmus School of Economics. His research interests concern the development and application of econometric methods for problems in marketing, finance and macroeconomics.