The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks

Over the century that intervened between the 1918 H1N1 Spanish Flu pandemic and the COVID-19 pandemic, the US Federal Reserve has deepened its understanding of the economic shocks that pandemics deliver. In fact, epidemic and pandemic shocks appear to have had similar characteristics as far back as the historical record can offer us clues. Further, human behavior has always been implicated in a pandemic's economic outcomes, as surely as pathogens are. The Fed’s actions in response to COVID-19, based in part on its own evolving understanding of what it takes to stabilize an economy and financial system in the face of a pandemic shock, were successful in forestalling an economic and financial collapse when COVID struck. The Fed and the Flu examines the Fed’s journey, insights from history, lessons from the world’s experience with COVID, and the pandemic’s economic impacts captured in charts. Every pandemic delivers an initial shock, but it also casts a longer shadow over the medium term. Most importantly, in the authors’ view, every pandemic is a learning opportunity that can be leveraged to better inform responses to future pandemics.

David Kotok co-founded the investment firm Cumberland Advisors and long served as its Chief Investment Officer and CEO. Well known in the financial media as a contributor and guest, David, in partnership with the Global Interdependence Center (GIC), organizes fishing retreats affectionately known as "Camp Kotok" by friends and the financial press. David has authored or co-authored five books.

Michael Englund (Mike) has been Principal Director and Chief Economist for Action Economics, LLC, since 2004. Mike has previously served on the Board of Directors for the National Association of Business Economics, as Chair of the NABE Financial Roundtable, and as President of the San Francisco Chapter of the NABE.

Tristan Erwin earned his B.A. in history from the University of North Georgia and pursues his passion for historical research whenever the opportunity arises, alongside a successful career in business development.