Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization Volume 1 A Step-by-Step Guide with Excel and Palisade's DecisionTools Software

This informative, hands-on book shows you how to harness the power of Microsoft Excel and Palisade Corporation's DecisionTools add-ins, including @RISK, StatTools, Evolver, RISKOptimizer, PrecisionTree, NeuralTools, and TopRank. You will learn innovative techniques that will give you the edge in solving real-world financial problems.
The fourth edition has been completely revised with new analyses, new Excel example models, and updated data sets. In addition to reorganizing the chapters for quicker learning, new chapters were added to highlight the latest features of DecisionTools, such as efficient frontiers and copulas.
Section 1 - Modeling Relationships This section uses statistical procedures to model relationships. For example, we show how to test investment strategies and how to search for market inefficiencies. We use StatTools and NeuralTools throughout Section 1.
Section 2 - Decision Analysis and Optimization In this section we model financial systems and find optimal solutions. For example, we learn how to immunize bond portfolios against interest-rate risk; how to minimize the volatility of stock portfolios; and how to manage investments over many periods. We use PrecisionTree and Evolver throughout Section 2.
Section 3 - Risk Analysis and Simulation In this section we model those situations when we have uncertainty about the outcomes. Uncertainty and risk analysis are key components in financial models. We learn how to model profitability of new products; how to make trade-offs between risk and return; and how to model discrete and continuous future stock (asset) prices. The pricing of financial derivatives, such as options, is covered, as well as real option theory to evaluate corporate investment opportunities. Value at risk (VaR) analysis for investments is also included. We use @RISK, RISKOptimizer, and TopRank throughout Section 3.
The modular nature of the chapters allow you to skip around and investigate models that appear interesting and make the book suitable for self-study or executive education. Portions of the book have been used to teach executives at Eli Lilly, GM, NCR, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and Deloitte & Touche. In addition, the text has been class tested for several years in MBA elective courses at both Indiana University and Babson College.
The included DVD includes a trial version of Palisade software and a link to download all example models used in the text.

Wayne L. Winston is a Professor of Decision Sciences at Indiana University's Kelley School of Business and has earned numerous MBA teaching awards. For 20+ years, he has taught clients at Fortune 500 companies how to use Excel to make smarter business decisions. Wayne and his business partner Jeff Sagarin developed the player-statistics tracking and rating system used by the Dallas Mavericks professional basketball team. He is the author of many books, including Mathletics and Simulation Modeling Using @RISK. He is also a two time Jeopardy! champion.
Terence Reilly is an Associate Professor of Mathematics at Babson College. His interests include developing innovative curricula for MBA programs, particularly distance programs. His research interests are in simulation and decision analysis, focusing on developing sensitivity analysis techniques and fitting distribution curves to univariate and multivariate uncertainties when there is a dependency among the variables. Recently, he has developed MBA courses in the mathematics of finance, in financial modeling using simulation, and in advanced decision analysis. He is the co-author with Robert T. Clemen of Marking Hard Decisions with DecisionTools.