To Find, and Not to Yield: How Advances in Information and Firepower Can Transform Theater Warfare

Absent significant changes in U.S. defense investment priorities, American forces could soon find themselves unable to cope with some emerging challenges in large-scale power projection operations. Specifically, U.S. forces will need better capabilities to secure a foothold in distant theaters, to defeat weapons of mass destruction and their delivery vehicles, to gain control of operations in the air, and to locate and destroy invading ground forces. New surveillance sensors, information processing capabilities, communication systems, and guided munitions are enabling operational concepts that can allow U.S. forces to meet emerging challenges and, indeed, to adopt new approaches to warfare. The authors assess quantitatively the capabilities of U.S. forces in the context of a generic scenario depicting a large-scale war in the next decade. From this, they identify priorities for modernizing U.S. forces. They argue that modernization dollars should be focused on forces and enabling capabilities that allow for decisive operations early in a conflict. If necessary, funds for such enhancements can come from modest reductions in forces that are slower to deploy.

David A. Ochmanek (M.P.A., Public Affairs and International Relations, Princeton University,Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs) is a researcher at RAND whose research interests include the future demands of U.S. defense strategy, the role of air forces in future U.S. theater operations, the implications of emerging U.S. capabilities for force mix and investment priorities.

Edward R. Harshberger, (Ph.D., Public Policy Analysis, RAND Graduate School, Santa Monica, California) is Associate Director of RAND Operations and Planning, National Security Research Division.

David Elliot Thaler (M.I.A., International Security Policy, Columbia University) is an IPA Fellow, HQ/USAF, Directorate of Programs and Evaluation, Resource Analyses Division, The Pentagon, Washington, D.C.