How to Forecast Economic Developments During and After Crises (Paperback)

Erich W. Streissler

ISBN 10: 3700170890 / ISBN 13: 9783700170891

Published by Austrian Academy of Sciences Press, 2012

About this Item

Paperback. English summary: Written between 2009 and 2011 the ten essays in this volume deal with problems of economic diagnosis and with forecasting, in particular forecasting of global economic developments in the first two decades of the 21st century. Based on a wide-ranging survey of the literature, Gunther Tichy's three essays show that both academic and practising economists in large numbers pointed out the unmistakable signs of a looming crash, but their warnings were ignored for political reasons, above all in the USA, where the quest for profit was not to be damped. Therefore Tichy inquires if stricter regulation of the finance sector could make its activities more transparent and development trends easier to control. In seven essays Erich Streissler analyses the financial crisis of 2008 and deals with forecasting problems. Since the late 1990s the world economy has had to register a "savings glut". In great parts, excess savings went to the USA where most of them were destroyed either by way of private and public consumption or by mis-investment. Streissler investigates several influential financial market models by US economists, some of Nobel prize fame, and shows that and why they were wrong and inapplicable. He discusses the question of an optimal probability distribution for analysing "rare events" like economic crises and ends the volume with an attempt at forecasting global economic developments. German description: Entstanden zwischen 2009 und 2011 befassen sich die hier vereinigten zehn Aufsatze mit den Themen langfristiger Wirtschaftsdiagnose und Prognose, speziell mit der Prognose globaler wirtschaftlicher Entwicklungen in den ersten zwei Jahrzehnten des 21. Jahrhunderts. In den ersten drei Aufsatzen zeigt Gunther Tichy anhand grundlicher Literaturstudien, wie es in den USA fast unmoglich war, die Augen vor der drohenden Finanzmarktkatastrophe zu verschliessen. Doch wurden alle Warnungen als zerstorerischer Defaitismus abgetan. Eine massenpsychologische Hoffnung auf Gewinne lasst sich selbst bei auffalliger Haufung drohender Symptome nicht so leicht truben. Konnte eine Regulierung des Finanz- und Bankensektors Entwicklungen auf diesem uberschaubarer und leichter vorhersagbar machen? In den folgenden sieben Aufsatzen analysiert Erich Streissler die Finanzkrise von 2008 und widmet sich vor allem Prognoseproblemen. Seit Ende der 1990er Jahre leidet die Welt unter einem Uberschuss beabsichtigter Ersparnisse. Uberschussige Weltersparnisse wurden zumal in den USA durch privaten und offentlichen Konsum vernichtet oder fuhrten zu Fehlinvestitionen. Streissler analysiert finanzmarkttheoretische Fehlurteile US-amerikanischer Nobelpreistrager und fragt nach der bestmoglichen Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung fur die Analyse "seltener Ereignisse" wie Wirtschaftskrisen. Sein Versuch einer Vorhersage zukunftiger Entwicklungen der Weltwirtschaft beschliesst den Band. Written between 2009 and 2011 the ten essays in this volume deal with problems of economic diagnosis and with forecasting, in particular forecasting of global economic developments in the first two decades of the 21st century. Shipping may be from our Sydney, NSW warehouse or from our UK or US warehouse, depending on stock availability.

Seller Inventory # 9783700170891

Bibliographic Details

• Title: How to Forecast Economic Developments During and After Crises (Paperback)
• Publisher: Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
• Publication Date: 2012
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 3700170890
• ISBN 13: 9783700170891
• Binding: Paperback
• Condition: new

About this title

Synopsis

Written between 2009 and 2011 the ten essays in this volume deal with problems of economic diagnosis and with forecasting, in particular forecasting of global economic developments in the first two decades of the 21st century. Based on a wide-ranging survey of the literature, Gunther Tichys three essays show that both academic and practising economists in large numbers pointed out the unmistakable signs of a looming crash, but their warnings were ignored for political reasons, above all in the USA, where the quest for profit was not to be damped. Therefore Tichy inquires if stricter regulation of the finance sector could make its activities more transparent and development trends easier to control. In seven essays Erich Streissler analyses the financial crisis of 2008 and deals with forecasting problems. Since the late 1990s the world economy has had to register a savings glut. In great parts, excess savings went to the USA where most of them were destroyed either by way of private and public consumption or by mis-investment. Streissler investigates several influential financial market models by US economists, some of Nobel prize fame, and shows that and why they were wrong and inapplicable. He discusses the question of an optimal probability distribution for analysing rare events like economic crises and ends the volume with an attempt at forecasting global economic developments.