Forecasting from An Econometric System of Interdependent Equations

The need emerged to construct forecasts for empirical systems of interdependent equations in econometric micromodels. As such, it became necessary to search for solutions, which provide convergent forecasts from structural-form equations of such a system. The procedure presented in the third and fourth chapters of this monograph, called a reduced-recursive procedure or a snail procedure can serve as a proposal for such a solution. It leads to convergent forecasts, which are characterized by the fact that they “mesh”, as part of a feedback or in a cycle of closed relations. Therefore, it is necessary to find new prognostic solutions for systems of interdependent equations within the scope of econometric micromodels. Consideration of various proposals, and in particular obtaining a large number of microeconomic forecasts, will enable rational generalizations. This will foster the use of such forecasts to support the management in business entities. Good forecasting solutions in this field may trigger the demand for forecasting work in enterprises of all sizes. This, in turn, will support the further development of research on forecasting from systems of interdependent equations.