Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries : Insights from a Statistical, Demographic and Epidemiological Perspective
Language: English
Published by Springer Nature B.V. Dez 2010, 2010
- Softcover
- New
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- Title
- Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries : Insights from a Statistical, Demographic and Epidemiological Perspective
- Author
- Christopher Heathcote
- Publisher
- Springer Nature B.V. Dez 2010
- Publication year
- 2010
- Condition
- Neu
- Binding
- Taschenbuch
- Language
- English
- ISBN 10
- 9048156602
- ISBN 13
- 9789048156603
- Item weight
- 511 grams
- Dimensions
- 235x155x19 mm
In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.
"Synopsis" may belong to another edition of this title.
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