Forecasting (SAGE Benchmarks in Social Research Methods)

Forecasting has long been a core activity involving most if not all organizations. However, it is only relatively recently that it has become an area of intensive research. The earliest research was based in the core quantitative disciplines of statistics and econometrics. However, prior to 1981 there were relatively few articles whose primary focus was forecasting but with the founding of, first the Journal of Forecasting and then, in 1985, the International Journal of Forecasting, the field rapidly developed its own methodological perspectives.

At its heart, forecasting is concerned with evaluating alternative approaches to particular forecasting problems. Parts I and II cover the core methodologies of forecasting. Part III examines the evaluation of different forecasting methods and how to choose between them. Part IV includes studies that are specific to particular problem areas. This collection has interdisciplinary appeal and will appeal to researchers in business and management, organization studies, politics, and psychology.

Robert Fildes is Distinguished Professor of Management Science in the School of Management, Lancaster University, Director of the Lancaster Centre for Forecasting and Honorary Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters. He was co-founder in 1981 of the Journal of Forecasting and in 1985 of the International Journal of Forecasting (IJF). For 10 years from l988 he was Editor-in-Chief of the IJF. He was president of the International Institute of Forecasters between 2000 and 2004. His research interests are concerned with the comparative evaluation of different forecasting methods, the implementation of improved forecasting procedures in organizations and the design of forecasting systems.

P. Geoffrey Allen is Professor at the Department of Resource Economics at University of Massachusetts Amherst. His research is on various aspects of decision-making under uncertainty and he is currently looking at econometric forecasting and time series analysis in general.