Forecasting Zero: U.S. Nuclear History and the Low Probability of Disarmament

Over the past few years, a vigorous debate about the wisdom and mechanics of nuclear disarmament has emerged around the world, particularly in the United States. Washington’s current wave of support for disarmament was ignited unexpectedly in 2007 by a bipartisan group of national security experts. Calls for the elimination of nuclear weapons have existed for almost as long as the weapons themselves. But these developments, coupled with President Barack Obama’s clear support for disarmament and the successful ratification of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, have left American supporters of abolition feeling as if the scales may finally be weighted in favor of their goal—even though they acknowledge that it will not be easily achieved. In his monograph, Jonathan Pearl challenges the notion that the probability of nuclear disarmament is increasing. He argues that, contrary to popular belief, there is little new about the current push for disarmament, buttressing his claim with a historical overview of the nuclear age that highlights important similarities between past and present disarmament efforts. Building on this historical analysis, Pearl surveys the current political-strategic context, one that is marked by continuing proliferation, various forms of conflict, and significant conceptual and structural barriers to abolishing nuclear weapons. It is far from certain, Pearl provocatively concludes, whether Washington’s current pro-disarmament efforts will produce meaningful or lasting results. The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to offer this monograph as an important contribution to the debate over nuclear disarmament. Whether readers are disarmament supporters or skeptics, Pearl’s contribution will serve as an important reference point for debates on this critical subject.

JONATHAN PEARL is a Ph.D. candidate in government and politics at the University of Maryland. During 2010-11, he was a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a Jennings Randolph Peace Scholar at the United States Institute of Peace. Mr. Pearl has previously worked at the RAND Corporation, and as a foreign policy advisor to former U.S. Senator Christopher J. Dodd. In 2008, he was a Nuclear Scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and he presently sits on the Board of Advisors for CSIS's Project on Nuclear Issues. Mr. Pearl's current research focuses on nuclear disarmament, proliferation, civil nuclear cooperation, nuclear arms control, and strategic stability. His work has been published by the Council on Foreign Relations, CSIS, and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, among other national and international media outlets. He holds an MA in government and politics from the University of Maryland and a BA in music from Florida Atlantic University.