This paper applies scenario-based thinking as described in Peter Schwartz's The Art of the Long View to analyze the future of space exploration. Manned interplanetary space exploration, as proposed by the current US administration, is examined with this scenario approach to identify the capabilities that may be required to protect national security. These scenarios, based on two axes, state competition and abundance of natural resources, provide four possible scenarios for Solar System exploration. These scenarios are compared to certain aspects of North America's discovery and colonization, as this country's past exploration period is, perhaps, an excellent example of what may lie ahead.

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