Geological Risk and Uncertainty in Oil Exploration: Uncertainty, Risk and Strategy

Oil exploration is a high-risk game. With worldwide drilling success of only 10% and a typical price tag of $15 million per well, it is no surprise the oil industry seeks better methods of managing financial risk. Geological Risk and Uncertainty in Oil Exploration answers this need by identifying the various uncertainties associated with basin analysis and incorporating this information into probabilistic models of basin evolution in relation to oil accumulation.
Oil and gas explorationists, strategic resource economists, and petroleum professionals who deal with scientific uncertainty and risk issues will benefit from the books systematic treatment of how to quantify the uncertainty associated with a variety ofgeological, geophysical, and geochemical problems. The origin of uncertainties associated with flexural plate motion models, dynamical models of sediment evolution, thermal models of sediment maturation, hydrocarbon kinetic models, fault models, and models of basinal sediment fill and turbidite flows are detailed in the first section. The subsequent incorporation of model uncertainties into probabilistic models of basin evolution and behavior constitutes the second half of the book. Throughout, the author interweaves a discussion of scientific probability, risk, and strategy within the context of improving our ability to assess strategic hydrocarbon resources.

Key Features
* Integrates quantitative knowledge of basin analysis with scientific uncertainty and economic risk to create an informed, integrated hydrocarbon exploration strategy
* Instructs the reader in handling a variety of geological, geophysical, and geochemical problems by applying quantitative methods to determine uncertainty
* Is student-friendly--each chapter opens with a general introduction to the subject and concludes with a review and discussion of the major concepts
* Includes numerous appendices containing ancillary data, equations, and examples

C. Ian Lerche is the author of more than 500 papers and has received numerous awards, including the Levorsen Award of the AAPG, the Nordic Professorship inPetroleum Geology, and the French Academie des Sciences Professorship in Geology. He has been a professor of geology in the Department of Geological Sciences at the University of South Carolina since 1984, and was associate chairman of the department 1985-1989. Between 1965-1981 he held positions of research associate, assistant professor, and associate professor at the University of Chicago. From 1981-1984 he worked as a senior scientist at Gulf Research and Development Co. He received a B.Sc. in physics in 1962 and a Ph.D. in astronomy in 1965 from the University of Manchester.