Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come."

-Global Trends 2040 (2021)

Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world:

- Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia.

- Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass.

- Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity.

- Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life.

Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

The United States NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL, the "analytic arm" of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, produces since 1979 assessments of national security issues for senior US policymakers.