Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: The Gulf Coast Study, Phase 2: Assessing Infrastructure for Criticality in Mobile, AL (Task 1)

The U.S. Department of Transportation’s Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting is conducting a comprehensive, multi-phase study of climate change impacts on transportation in the Central Gulf Coast region. This study, formally known as Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, is the first such study of its magnitude in the United States and thus represents an important benchmark in our understanding of what constitutes an effective transportation system adaptation planning effort. This report presents the findings of the first task of Phase 2 of this study—identifying critical transportation assets. While confidence in global climate change projections has been steadily increasing over recent years, investigations into the potential impacts of projected changes on a regional scale have been scarce. The exact risks that climate change poses to transportation systems are not yet well known. As many of the nation’s infrastructure components, such as rail lines, highways, bridges, and ports, are expected to last for up to 100 years, it is important that their design and long-term operations consider factors that could affect their resilience and effectiveness over their life span, such as changing environmental conditions due to climate change. The Gulf Coast Study was initiated to better understand climate change impacts on transportation infrastructure and to identify potential adaptation strategies. This study area was selected as the study’s focal point due to its dense population and complex network of transportation infrastructure, as well as its critical economic role in the import and export of oil, gas, and other goods. The Gulf Coast Study includes two phases: Phase 1 – The study assessed likely changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and increasing severity and frequency of tropical storms. Phase 1 then explored how these changes could impact transportation systems. Phase 2 – The purpose of Phase 2 is to provide a more detailed assessment of the vulnerability of the most critical components of the transportation system to weather events and long-term changes in climate. This work is being conducted on a single metropolitan area—the Mobile, AL region —with the intention of making the processes used in the study replicable to other areas.