Synopsis
Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous country, is undergoing a profound transformation that could lead to a variety of outcomes, from the consolidation of democracy to return to authoritarianism or military rule, to radical Islamic rule, or to violent disintegration. The stakes are high, for Indonesia is the key to Southeast Asian security. The authors examine the trends and dynamics that are driving Indonesia's transformation, outline possible strategic futures and their implications for regional stability, and identify options the United States might pursue in the critical challenge of influencing Indonesia's future course. Steps the United States might take now include support for Indonesia's stability and territorial integrity, reestablishment of Indonesian-U.S. military cooperation and interaction, aid in rebuilding a constructive Indonesian role in regional security, and support for development of a regional crisis reaction force. A continued strong U.S. presence in the Asia-Pacific region will reinforce the U.S. role as regional balancer.
From the Publisher
Indonesia is undergoing a systemic political transition that could lead to a variety of outcomes, from the consolidation of democracy to the regression to authoritarianism or disintegration. The stakes are high. With a population of 212 million and a land mass greater than the rest of Southeast Asia combined, vast natural resources, and a strategic location straddling critical sea lanes of communication and straits, Indonesia is the key to Southeast Asian security. Therefore, Indonesia's choices and its evolution will frame the future of Southeast Asia and influence the balance of power in the broader Asia-Pacific region.Influencing Indonesia's transformation is the most critical challenge to U.S. foreign and defense policy in Southeast Asia. This study examines the trends and dynamics that are driving Indonesia's transformation, outlines Indonesia's possible strategic futures and analyzes their implications for regional stability and U.S. security interests, and identifies options available to the United States and the U.S. Air Force to respond to these challenges.This research was conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine Program of Project AIR FORCE under the sponsorship of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Air and Space Operations, U.S. Air Force (AF/XO) and the Commander, Pacific Air Forces (PACAF/CC). This report should be of value to the national security community and interested members of the general public, especially those with an interest in U.S. relations with Indonesia and the ASEAN countries and the future of the Asia-Pacific region. Comments are welcome and should be sent to the authors, the project leader, Dr. Zalmay Khalilzad, or Project AIR FORCE Director of Strategy and Doctrine, Dr. Edward Harshberger.PROJECT AIR FORCEProject AIR FORCE, a division of RAND, is the United States Air Force's Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC) for studies and analyses. It provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is being performed in three programs: Strategy and Doctrine, Force Modernization and Employment, and Resource Management and System Acquisition.
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