Intelligence and the Mirror: On Creating an Enemy (International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO))

Despite the enormous resources in capital and intelligence devoted to the problems of war and peace, most military conflicts of the Twentieth Century were not predicted. Political scientists failed to foresee the collapse of empires, and economists forecasted growth when there was obvious decay. Written by a former intelligence officer, Intelligence and the Mirror explains why such forecasting failures occurred. This important volume not only develops, but tests new theory about the role of culture in controlling perception. It lays the foundation for a valuable method in intelligence prediction. Through a checklist of anthropological, cultural, and behavioral factors that affect military and political predictions, Robert Bathurst offers a step-by-step guide to seeing beyond one′s "cultural wall." Intelligence and the Mirror is a must read for political science scholars, military intelligence and government analysts, and for all those concerned with conflict resolution and the threat of war.