Introduction to Simulation and Risk Analysis (2nd Edition)

Focusing on simulation in risk analysis and systems simulation, this textbook introduces the concepts, methodologies, and applications of simulation in business. Chapters cover the use of Excel, probability and statistics, the use of Crystal Ball, applications of risk analysis, system simulation models, output analysis and experimentation, ProcessModel, applications of systems simulation, and forecasting and optimization. Evans teaches at the University of Cincinnati. Olson teaches at the University of Nebraska. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)

Soundly structured and highly practical, this informative guide introduces users to the concepts, methodologies, and applications of simulation in business, using easy-to-apply Microsoft Excel spreadsheets as the principal means to illustrate simulation modeling concepts, computational issues, and analysis of results. Uses spreadsheets throughout to convey quantitative methodologies in a language readers can most easily understand, and allows them to address the elementary concepts of both risk analysis and systems simulation approaches in a common framework. Fully covers all basic concepts of simulation (i.e., the nature of simulation models, systems (time/event driven) simulation, techniques for implementing simple simulation models on Excel spreadsheets, statistical concepts and methods important in simulation analysis, and more. Offers an in-depth study of risk analysis using the Excel add-in Crystal Ball as a practical method for Monte Carlo simulation. Presents a detailed analysis of systems simulation including discussions on the fundamentals of simulating inventory and queueing systems and event-driven simulation. Provides SkillBuilder exercises for practicing and developing spreadsheet and software applications skills, as well as Simulation in Practice cases and numerous examples and illustrations of simulation models throughout. For business administrators, industrial engineers, and related professionals who want to learn about simulation and risk analysis.