The Limits to Rational Expectations

This is a critical assessment of the rational expectations hypothesis from theoretical as well as empirical perspectives. It argues that the rational expectations and adaptive expectations hypotheses represent two different extremes, both of which are based on untenable assumptions and are empirically unsatisfactory. The author argues that a greater reliance on survey data on expectations, and the formulation of models that explicitly take account of the learning process are necessary, and proposes a new method for quantification of categorical survey data. The book covers a range of topics and brings together the diverse econometric contributions recently made in the areas of identification, estimation and hypothesis testing in a wide variety of rational expectations models.