Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side

A NEW YORK TIMES, WALL STREET JOURNAL, AND USA TODAY BESTSELLER

Named one of the Best Business Books of 2018 by Business Insider

The legendary investor Howard Marks shows how to identify and master the cycles that govern the markets.

We all know markets rise and fall, but when should you pull out, and when should you stay in? The answer is never black or white, but is best reached through a keen understanding of the reasons behind the rhythm of cycles. Confidence about where we are in a market cycle comes when you learn the patterns of ups and downs that influence not just economics, markets and companies, but also human psychology and the investing behaviors that result.

If you study past cycles, understand their origins and remain alert for the next one, you will become keenly attuned to the investment environment as it changes. You’ll be aware and prepared while others get blindsided by unexpected events or fall victim to emotions like fear and greed.

By following Marks’s insights―drawn in part from his iconic memos over the years to Oaktree’s clients―you can master these recurring patterns to have the opportunity to improve your results.

In Mastering the Market Cycle, Marks reveals his framework for superior investing, offering a practical guide to:

• Investor Psychology: Learn to identify the emotional pendulum swings between euphoria and fear that drive market extremes, and how to use them to your advantage.
• Cycle Positioning: Calibrate your portfolio by learning when to be aggressive and when to be defensive, based on a keen awareness of where we stand in the current economic cycle.
• The Credit Cycle: Understand why the credit cycle is the most powerful and volatile force, and what the “credit window” tells you about market health and risk management.
• Getting the Odds on Your Side: Move beyond simple forecasting to a more sophisticated understanding of tendencies and probabilities, giving you an edge while others are blindsided.

HOWARD MARKS is cochairman and cofounder of Oaktree Capital Management, a leading investment firm responsible for over $120 billion in assets. His previous book on investing, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor, was a critically acclaimed bestseller. He lives in New York City.