Measuring and Forecasting General Business Conditions (Classic Reprint)
Language: English
Published by Forgotten Books, 2018
- Softcover
- New
Seller: Forgotten Books, London, United KingdomForgotten Books
AbeBooks seller since June 2, 2021
Condition: New
US$ 17.57
Quantity: Over 20 available
Add to basketItem description from seller
Print on Demand. This book delves into the complex world of business cycles, those recurring periods of economic prosperity and downturn that have fascinated economists and investors for centuries. The author, a leading scholar of his time, sought to understand and predict these cycles through the use of statistical analysis, a relatively new tool in the early 20th century. By examining a wide range of statistical series, including commodity prices, pig-iron production, bank clearings, and interest rates, the author uncovers the hidden relationships between seemingly disparate economic activities. He argues that by carefully analyzing the timing and magnitude of fluctuations in these series, one can discern the underlying patterns that drive business cycles. He identifies three key groups of economic indicators: speculation, business activity, and banking. The author contends that these groups interact in a predictable manner, with speculation often leading the way, followed by changes in business activity, and ultimately, adjustments in banking conditions. By meticulously constructing an "index of general business conditions," the author provides a powerful tool for understanding the past and potentially forecasting future economic trends. This insightful work offers a compelling framework for analyzing the ebb and flow of the economy and its impact on individual businesses and investments. This book is a reproduction of an important historical work, digitally reconstructed using state-of-the-art technology to preserve the original format. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in the book.…
Seller Inventory # 9781330734964_0
- Title
- Measuring and Forecasting General Business Conditions (Classic Reprint)
- Author
- Warren M. Persons
- Publisher
- Forgotten Books
- Publication year
- 2018
- Condition
- New
- Book Type
- print-on-demand item
- Binding
- Paperback
- Language
- English
- ISBN 10
- 1330734963
- ISBN 13
- 9781330734964
- Seller catalogs
- Business
Gain a practical framework for predicting business moves.
Measuring and Forecasting General Business Conditions presents a clear method to quantify economic activity. It explains how an index can be built from monthly statistics to forecast when to buy or sell in a complex, interconnected economy. The book focuses on a structured approach rather than guesswork, making sense of data across industries, finance, and trade.
Using the period 1903–1914 as a foundation, the author separates data into four elements and identifies three compatible groups that drive fluctuations. Readers will see how to compare and interpret series such as commodity prices, production, and credit conditions to understand the bigger picture of business cycles.
- How to build a composite index from several statistical series
- The four elements that shape every monthly data point: secular trend, seasonal variation, cycles, and a residual
- Grouping: speculation, business activity, and banking conditions
- Guidance on interpreting the index to anticipate turning points in the economy
Ideal for readers of economic history, forecasting, and analytic methods who want a grounded, evidence-based approach to understanding general business conditions.
"Synopsis" may belong to another edition of this title.
Forgotten Books
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Forgotten Books’ Classic Reprint Series utilizes the latest technology to regenerate facsimiles of historically important writings. Careful attention has been made to accurately preserve the original format of each page whilst digitally enhancing the quality of the aged text.
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