Modeling Risk: Applying Monte Carlo Simulation, Real Options Analysis, Forecasting, and Optimization Techniques

This completely revised and updated edition of Applied Risk Analysis includes new case studies in modeling risk and uncertainty as well as a new risk analysis CD-ROM prepared by Dr. Mun. On the CD-ROM you'll find his Risk Simulator and Real Options Super Lattice Solver software as well as many useful spreadsheet models.

"Johnathan Mun's book is a sparkling jewel in my finance library. Mun demonstrates a deep understanding of the underlying mathematical theory in his ability to reduce complex concepts to lucid explanations and applications. For this reason, he's my favorite writer in this field."
—Janet Tavakoli, President, Tavakoli Structured Finance, Inc. and author of Collateralized Debt Obligations and Structured Finance

"A must-read for product portfolio managers . . . it captures the risk exposure of strategic investments, and provides management with estimates of potential outcomes and options for risk mitigation."
—Rafael E. Gutierrez, Executive Director of Strategic Marketing and Planning, Seagate Technology, Inc.

"Once again, Dr. Mun has created a 'must-have, must-read' book for anyone interested in the practical application of risk analysis. Other books speak in academic generalities, or focus on one area of risk application. [This book] gets to the heart of the matter with applications for every area of risk analysis. You have a real option to buy almost any book?you should exercise your option and get this one!"
—Glenn Kautt, MBA, CFP, EA, President and Chairman, The Monitor Group, Inc.

Note: CD-ROM/DVD and other supplementary materials are not included as part of eBook file.

JOHNATHAN MUN, PHD, is the founder and CEO of Real Options Valuation, Inc., as well as the creator of the Real Options Super Lattice Solver software for real options valuation and Risk Simulator Monte Carlo simulation software. Prior to starting his own firm, he was the vice president of analytics at Decisioneering, Inc. Mun is also a full professor at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School (California) and the University of Applied Sciences (Switzerland and Germany). He has authored numerous books, including Real Options Analysis, Real Options Analysis Course, Applied Risk Analysis (the first edition of Modeling Risk), and Valuing Employee Stock Options (all published by Wiley). Mun has also taught and consulted for over 300 corporations in twenty countries worldwide on risk analysis and real options, and is considered a leading authority on real options and risk analysis.