Modeling Risk, + DVD: Applying Monte Carlo Risk Simulation, Strategic Real Options, Stochastic Forecasting, and Portfolio Optimization

An updated guide to risk analysis and modeling

Although risk was once seen as something that was both unpredictable and uncontrollable, the evolution of risk analysis tools and theories has changed the way we look at this important business element. In the Second Edition of Analyzing and Modeling Risk, expert Dr. Johnathan Mun provides up-to-date coverage of risk analysis as it is applied within the realms of business risk analysis and offers an intuitive feel of what risk looks like, as well as the different ways of quantifying it.

This Second Edition provides professionals in all industries a more comprehensive guide on such key concepts as risk and return, the fundamentals of model building, Monte Carlo simulation, forecasting, time-series and regression analysis, optimization, real options, and more.

• Includes new examples, questions, and exercises as well as updates using Excel 2007
• Book supported by author's proprietary risk analysis software found on the companion CD-ROM
• Offers both a qualitative and quantitative description of risk

Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, this reliable resource covers all of the essential tools and techniques that risk managers need to successfully conduct risk analysis.

Note: CD-ROM/DVD and other supplementary materials are not included as part of eBook file.

JOHNATHAN MUN, PhD, is the founder and CEO of Real Options Valuation, Inc., and the creator of the Real Options Super Lattice Solver software for real options valuation, Monte Carlo Risk Simulator, and multiple other analytics software tools. Prior to starting his own firm, he was the vice president of analytics at Oracle/Crystal Ball. Mun is also a full professor at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School (California) and the University of Applied Sciences (Switzerland and Germany). He has authored numerous books, including Real Options Analysis, Real Options Analysis Course, Advanced Analytical Models, Applied Risk Analysis, Modeling Risk, and Valuing Employee Stock Options (all published by Wiley), as well as coauthored The Banker's Handbook on Credit Risk. Mun has also taught and consulted for over 500 corporations in thirty countries worldwide and is considered a leading authority on risk analysis and real options.