Monetary Policy, A Market Price Approach

This is the first comprehensive presentation of how monetary policymakers can use market prices to produce price stability. Drs. Johnson and Keleher show why other, conventional methods have failed and why market prices are superior guides for setting monetary policy. Their book presents the rationale, history, and philosophy underlying their approach; offers three forms of empirical research evidence to support it; and then presents special methods to use market prices as policy setting guides. Important and challenging reading for monetary policymakers and economists, bankers, financial analysts, and professional investors, as well as their colleagues in the academic community with similar interests.

Substantial changes involving revolutions in telecommunications and information processing, financial deregulation, and the global integration of financial markets have altered the environment in which central banks operate. This altered environment has undermined various conventional approaches to monetary policy. This book presents an alternative market price approach to monetary policy. The approach is easily adapted to the above-cited change: it adopts a price stabilization policy goal and uses key market prices from the commodity, foreign exchange, and bond markets as guides to policy. Commodity prices, foreign exchange rates, and bond yields represent proxies for the exchange rate between domestic money and (1) commodities, (2) foreign monies, and (3) future money (bonds), respectively. These market prices are assessed in conjunction with one another to yield policy guidance to the monetary authority. This book describes how this approach is carried out in practice. Empirical evidence support the approach from three perspectives. First, empirical support exists for each of the individual market price indicators examined in isolation. Second, market price indicators provided accurate signals for monetary policymakers during the post-Bretton Wood era. Had this market price approach been used by policymakers, the performance of the macroeconomy during this period likely would have been improved. Third, at least one historical episode demonstrates that when the approach was employed, economic performance was impressive, and price stability was, in fact, achieved.

MANUEL H. JOHNSON is Co-Chairman of Johnson Smick International, a Washington-based consulting firm that provides information services on important economic and political policy changes that affect global financial markets. Before joining Johnson Smick, Dr. Johnson was Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and before that was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury. He was also a professor of international economics at George Mason University and has served on various important boards and commissions. He is author and coauthor of four books and has published more than 50 articles in academic journals and other publications.

ROBERT E. KELEHER is Chief Economist of Johnson Smick International. Prior to joining the firm he was Vice-Chairman Johnson's special assistant and monetary adviser at the Federal Reserve Board, and also served as Senior Macroeconomist at the Council of Economic Advisors. He has also been Research Officer and Senior Financial Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and an economist at First Tennessee National Corporation, a major regional bank holding company. He is coauthor of one book and the author of more than 40 articles in academic journals and other publications.