Motivations and Possible Actions of Potential Criminal Adversaries of U.S. Nuclear Programs; R-2554-SL

xii, 82 pages. Footnotes. Tables. Cover has some wear and soiling. This is a report that was prepared for Sandia Laboratories. Brian Michael Jenkins is a senior adviser to the president of the RAND Corporation and author of numerous books, reports, and articles on terrorism-related topics. He formerly served as chair of the Political Science Department at RAND. On the occasion of the 10-year anniversary of 9/11, Jenkins initiated a RAND effort to take stock of America's policy reactions and give thoughtful consideration to future strategy. That effort is presented in The Long Shadow of 9/11: America's Response to Terrorism. Jenkins is a decorated combat veteran, having served in the Seventh Special Forces Group in the Dominican Republic and with the Fifth Special Forces Group in Vietnam. He returned to Vietnam as a member of the Long Range Planning Task Group and received the Department of the Army's highest award for his service. In 1996, President Clinton appointed Jenkins to the White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security. From 1999 to 2000, he served as adviser to the National Commission on Terrorism. This report explores the motivations that might impel individuals or groups to undertake criminal actions against U.S. nuclear facilities and programs. This report was intended to help officials responsible for nuclear security to establish more effective systems for protecting against nuclear crimes, by drawing plausible inferences about actions and targets that adversaries are likely to prefer. Three categories of motivation are considered: ideological, economic, and personal. Possible criminals include, among others, psychotics, religious and philosophical fanatics, professional criminals, environmental extremists, political terrorists, adolescent pranksters, and disgruntled or self-seeking employees. Their crimes may range all the way from empty hoaxes to theft, sabotage, direct attack, and the holding of nuclear material or weapons for ransom or extortion. The report includes a matrix that identifies the most likely combinations of adversaries and actions, and indicates crimes that have already occurred or may have occurred.…